Insurance markets in emerging EMEA markets will remain strong in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings predictions.
The creditworthiness of insurers in these markets, consisting of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Africa, Turkiye, and Kazakhstan, are expected to remain resilient in 2026, the firm stated, but could be subdued by ongoing risks.
Trade tariffs and heightened geopolitical tension are the key downside risks for emerging markets, the report says. Geopolitics present a risk to market confidence in a number of regions, including Turkey. The impact of these risks is present, but expected to be less impactful, in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Insurers in South Africa, Turkey, and Kazakhstan are additionally expected to feel pressure from sovereign risk, inflation, foreign exchange risk, and interest rate-related risks, which could curb profits.
Overall, economic growth and earnings forecasts for these counties “will remain solid”, S&P Global Ratings commented, buoying insurance demand and penetration rates.
On average, S&P Global Ratings has assigned insurers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE A- and Kazakhstan BB. South African insurers have been rated between AA/A and BB, and Milli Reasurans T.A.S, the only Turkish insurer on S&P’s books, has been labelled B/Positive.
Turkey has the highest property and casualty (P/C) insurance sector and country risk of the cohort, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia sit on the lower end of the risk spectrum. Competition in the sector is expected to be high across these two countries.
Profitability of the Saudi insurance industry was down 41% year-on-year (YoY) in Q3 2025, and S&P Global Ratings expects this to continue to the end of the year.
“For 2026, we expect an improvement in net results, thanks to rate adjustments, particularly in the motor segment,” it added.
For the rest of the group, profitability is expected to remain positive.
Insurers’ premiums are expected to outpace economic growth in all the countries in both the P/C and life insurance industries.
©Markets Media Europe 2025
