Issuers are meeting their targets early this year as they get used to unpredictable markets, according to Mike Koerkemeier, global head of capital markets at ING.
“Roughly 65% of the expected volume has already been issued in the first half of the year. The world has become a very unpredictable place, so when issuers see a constructive tone in the market, they do their funding. We’re looking at a window market,” he explained at a briefing earlier this week,” he says. “It’s probably fair to say that two thirds have completed their funding for 2025 already, just to take some chips off the table and avoid being exposed to potential post-summer volatility.”
Despite, or perhaps because of, the unpredictability of the world, Koerkemeier noted a ‘headline blindness’ in markets’ reactions to news.
“Whatever goes into the headlines, it seems that the market is relatively unaffected. There’s a bit more nervousness, but less volatility,” he commented.
So far, the most significant volatility of the year occurred in April following Trump’s tariff announcements – and credit activity has ballooned since.
“There was little supply then, but towards the end of April I think that investors started to feel that credit was a good way to put their money to work, and we’ve seen quite significant issuance volume in the US and Europe.
“We’ve seen a flood of reverse Yankee issuances, with multi-billion trades into the euro market from big US companies. Their deals all got oversubscribed, and they all got a very good price compared to dollar pricing. We forecast that trend to continue.”
In Europe alone, €68 billion was issued in May.
“That makes it one of the busiest months we have seen in years,” Koerkemeier said.
While further shock tariff changes could impact markets, the effects would not be long-lasting, he added.
“We currently see a very strong credit market. It’s difficult to forecast anything that could really derail that.”
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