ING’s senior debt capital markets leaders share their outlook on issuance conditions, investor appetite, and what borrowers need to do to succeed in a market shaped by geopolitical tension, rising rates, and structural change.
The first weeks of 2026 offered a glimpse of what a benign debt market could look like. January and February delivered exceptional issuance volumes before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East introduced a new layer of complexity for borrowers and investors alike. Since then, the market has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to absorb uncertainty, but the message from ING’s debt capital markets leadership is consistent: preparation, timing, and selectivity are now the defining disciplines for anyone looking to access the market.
Mike Koerkemeier, ING’s global head of capital markets, says, “The first week of January we had 120 billion printed in euros in a week’s time across all asset classes, SSA, corporate, FIG, it was phenomenal.” The mood shifted sharply when conflict erupted. “Little did I know what happened overnight when I landed back in Amsterdam, and all of a sudden we had the Middle Eastern situation, which then put a lid on the market … From mid-April until now, we saw a good recovery in terms of issuance volumes, in terms of investor feedback, in terms of what we call new issue premiums, all these pointers that we take to assess the market were actually in green territory.”
Credit markets defy the headlines
For Dimis Theodorou, ING’s head of UK debt capital markets syndicate, the resilience of credit markets has been the defining story of the year so far. He observes that the high yield crossover index reached a peak as the war unfolded and has since seen a significant reduction, as has the gap between spreads on cash versus swaps.
“If you just look at that on the face of it, you could argue that there isn’t a war going on according to the credit markets,” he says.
That recovery reflects both the technical support behind credit and the strength of underlying corporate fundamentals.
“Earnings have been super strong, so corporate defaults aren’t showing up yet,” Theodorou notes. “If you look at the earnings that corporates are reporting, they’re beats for the most part. The AI theme in the US remains dominant. The S&P is trading over 7,400, so again the equity market isn’t necessarily reflecting the fact that there is a war which is ongoing.”
There is also a structural argument for credit at current yield levels.
“The absolute yield environment has seen a big move in rates, 70 basis points higher in the short term, 50 in some of the term maturities such as 10 years,” he explains. “When you can offer investment grade risk in the context of 4% plus, that starts to get insurers interested, it starts to get pension funds interested. It becomes more of a total return-orientated, sticky level of demand that wants to buy credit product.”
The risks have not gone away
Candour about what could go wrong is equally evident. Theodorou is direct about the scenario that most concerns the market.
“Rate velocity, and central banks being behind the curve, is what the market is most fearful of. The doomsday scenario is where you start to see words like stagflation being thrown around: slowdown in growth, high inflation, central banks behind the curve. That’s where the market becomes fearful that there’s actually going to be a structural adjustment in inflation.”
He adds that the warning signs are visible at the edges, even if they have not yet spread to the centre.
“If I look at what happened last week, you saw significantly higher PPI numbers in the US. You see inflation bearing its head in some of the Asian economies, and arguably economies which are more reliant on the export challenge from the Middle East having to pre-emptively hike rates.”
For Koerkemeier, the uncertainty created by the conflict has also had a more constructive effect, forcing the market to re-engage with fundamentals rather than simply chasing yield.
“What this event has forced the market to look at more acutely is corporate fundamentals, and what they look forward to: who are the haves, who are the have-nots, who’s going to become more relevant in each of these themes,” he says.
Take the window
Against this backdrop, ING’s advice to borrowers is unambiguous. “My message is: take the window while it’s there,” says Theodorou. “If investors are showing you demand for your name in the current environment, where spreads are at historical tights, yes, coupons are a little higher, but in a historical context very manageable, take advantage of it. I think we’ve reached that inflection point where borrowers are starting to adjust that mindset.”
Koerkemeier says that the ceasefire has shifted the psychology of corporate treasurers.
“When the ceasefire hit and you saw that pronounced rally back in spreads, it then became a conversation with many treasurers appreciating that it could get worse. So it makes sense to take the window. I think there has been an acceleration of that mindset on a global basis.”
The discipline of identifying and acting on those windows has also intensified the importance of preparation. Theodorou is direct about what investors now expect in the high yield market in particular.
“Investors are willing to do the work, they want to see management, they want to see them on long deal roadshows, they want to speak to them through pre-marketing or crossover exercises if the execution permits that. It’s not uncommon to have hundreds of investors attend physical roadshows for these types of executions in the current environment,” he says. “They want to understand what’s happening with these names, given the uncertainty on the look-forward.”
ING’s activity in the high yield market this year illustrates both the breadth of investor appetite and the care required in execution. Koerkemeier points to a range of recent transactions that span the risk spectrum.
“We’ve been active on trades for Speed, which is an infrastructure name within the utility space; we’ve been active for Maxima, which is a retailer in the Baltics; and we’ve also been active with Atos, which is a digital IT service provider that has gone through pronounced restructuring, where we ended up refinancing their first lien bonds and loans for a bottom of one-and-a-quarter billion,” he says. “All of those trades went really well, at differing ends of the risk spectrum within high yield.”
On the question of covenants and deal terms, Theodorou sees investor scrutiny as a healthy sign.
“There is focus on covenants, as there should be. I find it somewhat refreshing that investors actually do pay attention to it, because otherwise it would just be too easy.”
Multi-currency thinking and the role of the euro market
The assertion that the euro market effectively closed during the period of maximum tension is contested by Koerkemeier.
“I would actually disagree with the euro market shutdown,” he counters. “We saw smaller volumes being printed, but I think that was equally true for the dollar market. The euro market was always there, albeit sometimes smaller in size, definitely for SSA issuers, for covered bonds, for everything in the AAA space.”
He points to a broader shift in how international borrowers are thinking about currency, with the euro gaining ground.
“We’ve done transactions for Turkey in euros, done transactions for Turkey in dollars, for Indonesia in euros. European bids are wide open.”
The lesson for sophisticated issuers is clear, he says.
“As a treasurer, you need to be acutely focused on what every currency offers you in this market. If there’s a particular depth of bid, does it make sense to focus on that versus an alternative?”
While falling secondary market liquidity on electronic platforms has been blamed by high issuance levels, Koerkemeier sees a structural rather than cyclical explanation, with cash instruments being only one way that traders express ideas in a volatile market.
“When you speak to investors, they engage with the new issue market because it’s the liquidity provider that they want,2 he says. “If you want bonds, you get them in primary. Secondary has gone through a massive proliferation around what type of instrument you can buy, ETF products, CDS, total return swaps, so there are just much broader considerations on the secondary side.”
The outlook: selective, active, and AI-driven
Looking beyond the immediate calendar, Rob van Veldhuizen, ING’s global head of corporate finance, sees a market defined by quality rather than volume.
“The financing conditions are improving, stable rates, strong equity valuations, more CEO confidence and willingness to act. We see a high strategic imperative at the moment: growth, AI, portfolio reshaping. There is still a large backlog of deployable capital.” But he cautions that the recovery is uneven: “Activity remains top-heavy and concentrated in large-cap deals. It’s not a volume market, success is more based on discipline, selectivity, and execution readiness.”
The technology and data infrastructure theme runs through all three leaders’ views.
“There is a huge financing requirement in the data centre space, and it will only increase, given what’s happening on the AI side,” van Veldhuizen says. “For us, it’s covered by our TMT sector as one of the key investment areas we see, definitely in 2026 and 2027.”
Koerkemeier’s summary captures the tone of a market that has absorbed a great deal and remains broadly open, but rewards those who approach it with care.
“Looking through the cycle is the way any funding programme should be managed. The redemption cycles over 2026, 2027, and 2028 are pronounced, that’s been a massive help, and we’ve just not seen that recessionary fear hit the market yet. Credit markets have been a beneficiary of that.”
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